The U.S. economy added 213,000 jobs in June, more than the 195,000 expected. Job numbers for May were revised up to 244,000 from 223,00. How is it then that unemployment jumped from 3.8% to 4.0%?
Welcome to the new reality where job gains are undone by an increase in labor force participation. It stood at 62.7% in May and rose to 62.9% in June. That 0.2% increase amounts to 601,000 folks who decided job prospects had improved enough to make it worthwhile.
What is worrisome is that, although we are close to the average labor force participation rate, it has averaged 62.99% since data compilation began in 1950, levels were much higher until recently. Throughout the 90's and up to 2002, the average was closer to 67% and only dipped slightly, to 66%, with the advent of the Great Recession. Since then, however, labor participation steadily dwindled until plateauing below 63% since 2014. If labor participation was ever to normalize, i.e. get back to pre-Financial Crisis levels, it would mean a jump of 9.6 to 12.6 million new entrants into the job market. At the current job creation rate it would take 4.5 to 6.0 years to assimilate those workers with unemployment rates jumping to 7% in the interim.
So, maybe the job picture is not as rosy as it is currently being painted. Certainly, the wages side of the equation is not that alluring to prospective entrants. Hourly wages only rose 0.2% from the prior month and 2.7% over the year. They rose 0.3% and 0.15% in May and April, respectively, over the previous month and 2.7% and 2.4% over the previous year. If labor markets were tight, as many pundits claim, wage pressures should be much higher. Back in March 2000, for example, when labor participation was around 67% and the unemployment rate stood at 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 3.6% on a year to year basis. Likewise, in 2008, when the labor participation rate was 66% and unemployment was 4.9%, average hourly earnings rose 3.7%.
While not gangbuster wage growth numbers, however, they should allay the Fed's fears that wage pressures will lead to inflation growth above 2% anytime soon. Nevertheless, the "real" unemployment numbers should give Fed members pause. Maybe the job market and the economy are not as healthy as they surmise and perhaps caution is merited as they consider further rate increases. Instead, the June meeting minutes indicate the Fed considers conditions robust enough to remove accommodative language in their policy statement and that they should continue undaunted in raising the fed funds rate above the neutral level by next year.
About the only concern the Fed had was the flattening of the yield curve. Historically this is a harbinger for recessions, which led to a discussion regarding a recession lurking around the corner and global trade tensions as a potential cause.
Personally, I feel there is some stealthy, nefarious force behind those labor participation and wage numbers. My suspicion is that the demographic forces I have previously written about are at work here. And we should thread carefully on the economy's brake pedal until we can be certain of those forces.
I am an investor, two decades plus student of the market, professor, and author of "And Then the Tempest - The Imminent Financial Meltdown is Real and What to do About it." I was the founder and chairman of the Idaho State University Budget Committee in 2007. As such, I warned the university of the impending recession and real estate crisis and helped steer finances during those tumultuous years. Today, I warn folks of a coming economic storm, indeed, it's already knocking at the door and could prove more catastrophic than the Financial Crisis. Check out my website, http://www.megabearmarket.com, and posts at http://www.stockopedia.com to find out more.
By Karl De Jesus
Showing posts with label Job. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Job. Show all posts
Slow Economy, Slow Job Gains
Job growth will probably rebound from April's meager gain, but not by much. Employment will track the economy's tepid growth rate.
April's ho-hum job figures reflect an economy in low gear as well as attempts by companies to preserve profit margins by limiting new hiring. But the less-than-expected gain of 88,000 jobs -- the lowest monthly tally in about two and a half years -- doesn't mean the economy is heading into a tailspin. In fact, more than half a million jobs were added in the first four months of this year -- not as strong a pace as last year, but by no means indicative of a slump.
Some of the slowdown in Friday's Labor Department report is a bit deceptive. It arises from complex seasonal adjustment estimates each spring relating to the construction sector, which officially shed 11,000 jobs in April. In effect, these adjustments probably made the decline in construction seem worse than it actually was. The employment report also featured a surprising loss of 26,000 jobs in the retail sector, which is likely to pick up again this month as stores start to sell summer merchandise.
There is also good reason to believe that manufacturing, which lost 19,000 jobs last month, could soon post a better performance. March factory orders -- a harbinger of the future pace of business -- posted a solid gain, while a recent survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing showed them to be upbeat about the orders outlook and about future hiring.
That said, don't expect a significant upswing in job creation. Although the economy is likely to steer clear of a recession, the pace of economic growth will remain tepid -- in the 2% to 2.5% range this year. For all of 2007, we expect a total of 1.3 million jobs to be added on a net basis, or an average of about 110,000 a month.
The job report includes some good news on the inflation front: Growth in average hourly earnings slowed a bit, rising a relatively modest 0.2% in April and 3.7% for the past 12 months. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.5% from 4.4% a month ago.
The Federal Reserve is counting on slower economic growth to loosen up the labor market a bit and hence reduce inflation pressures. This would allow the Fed to avoid raising interest rates and exacerbating the economic slowdown.
We think job trends are on the Fed's preferred path. The unemployment rate is likely to continue to creep higher, reaching about 5% by year end. However, the Fed probably won't feel comfortable about cutting rates until the central bank sees solid evidence that inflation is on a sustainable downward path. So we stick with our outlook for steady rates through this year.
source
April's ho-hum job figures reflect an economy in low gear as well as attempts by companies to preserve profit margins by limiting new hiring. But the less-than-expected gain of 88,000 jobs -- the lowest monthly tally in about two and a half years -- doesn't mean the economy is heading into a tailspin. In fact, more than half a million jobs were added in the first four months of this year -- not as strong a pace as last year, but by no means indicative of a slump.
Some of the slowdown in Friday's Labor Department report is a bit deceptive. It arises from complex seasonal adjustment estimates each spring relating to the construction sector, which officially shed 11,000 jobs in April. In effect, these adjustments probably made the decline in construction seem worse than it actually was. The employment report also featured a surprising loss of 26,000 jobs in the retail sector, which is likely to pick up again this month as stores start to sell summer merchandise.
There is also good reason to believe that manufacturing, which lost 19,000 jobs last month, could soon post a better performance. March factory orders -- a harbinger of the future pace of business -- posted a solid gain, while a recent survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing showed them to be upbeat about the orders outlook and about future hiring.
That said, don't expect a significant upswing in job creation. Although the economy is likely to steer clear of a recession, the pace of economic growth will remain tepid -- in the 2% to 2.5% range this year. For all of 2007, we expect a total of 1.3 million jobs to be added on a net basis, or an average of about 110,000 a month.
The job report includes some good news on the inflation front: Growth in average hourly earnings slowed a bit, rising a relatively modest 0.2% in April and 3.7% for the past 12 months. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.5% from 4.4% a month ago.
The Federal Reserve is counting on slower economic growth to loosen up the labor market a bit and hence reduce inflation pressures. This would allow the Fed to avoid raising interest rates and exacerbating the economic slowdown.
We think job trends are on the Fed's preferred path. The unemployment rate is likely to continue to creep higher, reaching about 5% by year end. However, the Fed probably won't feel comfortable about cutting rates until the central bank sees solid evidence that inflation is on a sustainable downward path. So we stick with our outlook for steady rates through this year.
source
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